L&T surprised on the upside of consensus due to stronger-than-expected growth overseas. The Q1FY25 results were ahead of estimates on both revenue and net profit fronts. The company reported a 15 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y) growth in revenues along with 15 per cent Y-o-Y growth in operating profit and 12 per cent Y-o-Y growth in net profit on consolidated basis.
April-June 2023 (Q1FY24) was a mixed quarter for India's top family-owned business groups. Three of the big five in terms of revenue reported a year-on-year (Y-o-Y) decline in combined net sales and two saw a Y-o-Y fall in net profits. Combined net sales of all listed companies in the five groups were up just 2.2 per cent Y-o-Y at Rs 6.6 trillion in the quarter, down sharply from the 10.3 per cent in the March 2023 quarter (Q4FY23) and 42.8 per cent in Q1FY23.
With the earnings season drawing to a close, stock markets will take cues from global trends and foreign investors' trading activity this week, analysts said. The US FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) minutes will be the major highlight this week, experts said. "This week, there are fewer cues on the macro and micro fronts, as the Q1 earnings season has concluded.
The US Fed interest rate decision, ongoing quarterly earnings, macroeconomic data and FII trading activity are the major triggers that will drive stock markets this week, analysts said. Investors would also track global market trends and the movement in global oil prices for further cues. "This week, the focus will shift to global cues, particularly the US markets," Santosh Meena, Head of Research, Swastika Investmart Ltd said.
Among Sensex shares, Bajaj Finance, Mahindra & Mahindra, Sun Pharma, Nestle, NTPC, Power Grid, NTPC, UltraTech Cement and Larsen & Toubro were the biggest laggards. The prominent gainers were ITC, Tata Motors, Asian Paints and Titan.
Lower crude oil costs and higher marketing margins are expected to raise the fortunes of oil marketing companies (OMCs) in the first quarter (Q1) of 2023-24 (FY24), while city gas distribution (CGD) companies could also benefit from lower spot prices of liquefied natural gas (LNG). However, in a break from the past, growth trends are expected to diverge for various segments within the broad energy sector. Analysts expect the earnings from gas production to go down for upstream national oil and gas companies such as Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC) and Oil India (OIL) due to the introduction of the new domestic gas pricing regime on April 1. After showing steep losses over the first half of 2022-23 (FY23), the marketing margins of OMCs have steadily recovered in four months.
Merchandise exports to the US jumped 23.5 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y) to $8.3 billion in June, even as India's overall outbound shipments witnessed contraction during the month, according to the data released by the commerce department on Tuesday. The increase in outbound shipments to the US was largely driven by the rush among exporters to utilise America's pause on its plans to impose country-specific reciprocal tariffs.
The markets have given a thumbs down to Jubilant FoodWorks results for the April-June quarter (Q1) of 2023-24 (FY24). The company, which owns and operates Domino's Pizza and Popeyes chain of stores, reported a (standalone) net profit of Rs 75.2 crore in Q1 of FY24 - a drop of 25.5 per cent year-on-year (YoY) from Rs 101 crore, but a quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) rise from Rs 47.5 crore. What's worrying the Street is the likelihood of a dismal Q2FY24 performance, which it feels will be marred by soaring milk, cheese and vegetable prices.
Non-banking financial company (NBFC) Tata Capital is set to launch its much-anticipated $2 billion (Rs 17,200 crore) initial public offering (IPO) in the week beginning September 22, market sources familiar with the matter said on Sunday. The issue is expected to value the company around $11 billion, they added. Tata Capital is likely to make its stock market debut by September 30.
India's top information- technology (IT) services companies, all cash-rich, have been tightfisted about ploughing back their earnings in new projects or acquisitions and the bulk of the profits have been distributed to shareholders through dividend and share buybacks. In the past 10 years (that is, excluding the current one), the firms have reinvested in growth and expansion only around 13.5 per cent of the cash flow generated from their operations.
Capital goods companies are likely to report double-digit growth in sales and profit for the first quarter of the 2023-24 financial year (Q1FY24), according to analysts. The performance will ride on lower raw-material costs and healthy execution of orders. Sales by capital goods companies are likely to increase 13-20 per cent year-on-year (YoY), five domestic brokerage firms said.
Auto industry volumes have grown by 2.5 per cent overall, led by domestic sales of three-wheelers, two-wheelers and passenger vehicles (PVs) in the first quarter of this financial year. Analysts predict an 18 per cent growth in revenues for automotive original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) and profit growth of 69 per cent year-on-year (YoY). However, on a sequential basis, a decline in revenues as well as earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortisation (Ebitda) margins is expected.
Reliance Industries Ltd, India's most valuable company, on Friday reported a 5 per cent drop in its June quarter net profit as lower fuel cracks and petrochemical margins outdid gains in telecom and retail businesses. The oil-to-retail-to-telecom conglomerate's consolidated net profit was at Rs 15,138 crore, or Rs 22.37 per share, in April-June -- the first quarter of the current 2023-24 fiscal year -- compared to Rs 16,011 crore, or Rs 23.66 a share, earnings a year back, according to a company's statement.
Benefiting from higher credit off-take and loan repricing, listed commercial banks are expected to post 43.9 per cent year-on-year (YoY) growth in their net profit in the quarter ended June 30 (Q1FY24), analysts have said. Controlled credit costs due to a healthy asset quality profile and a steady treasury book will also support a strong bottom line for the lenders in the first quarter. However, net profit may shrink sequentially, according to analysts' estimates for 13 banks sourced from Bloomberg data.
As the results season kicks in, the quarterly earnings numbers of several blue-chip firms -- such as Infosys and Reliance Industries -- along with global trends and trading activity of foreign investors, will determine equity market movement in the holiday-shortened week ahead, according to analysts. The domestic WPI inflation data for June -- scheduled to be announced on Monday -- will also influence trading sentiments, traders said. Markets will remain closed on Wednesday for Muharram.
Bandhan Bank has declared disappointing results for the first quarter of the 2023-24 financial year (Q1FY24). While the market has been braced for known issues around microfinance exposures in West Bengal and Assam, there is higher stress in the portfolio. This means higher credit costs and poorer asset quality, leading to target downgrades by analysts.
Better than expected performance in June quarter of the 2023-24 financial year (Q1FY24) and a robust outlook led to 1.2 per cent gain in Titan Company stock on Friday (July 7). The firm reported 20 per cent growth in revenues, aided by double-digit rise in its major consumer segments. Jewellery, its largest segment, accounting for about 90 per cent of its sales, stood out with a growth of 21 per cent over the year ago quarter.
'Asset allocation should be driven much more by long-term factors rather than the market scenario at any particular point in time.'
IT services company Wipro on Thursday reported a 12 per cent rise in its consolidated net profit to about Rs 2,870 crore for the June 2023 quarter. It had posted a consolidated net profit of Rs 2,563.6 crore in the year-ago period (Q1FY23). Wipro's income from operations in the June quarter increased 6 per cent to Rs 22,831 crore.
India Inc has reported a muted start to the financial year 2024-25, with a decline in net earnings and a modest single-digit uptick in revenues. An analysis of 488 companies that have released their results for the June 2024 quarter reveals a 1.6 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y) drop in combined net profit -- the weakest performance in the past seven quarters. In stark contrast, the combined net profit of these companies experienced a 13.6 per cent Y-o-Y increase in the previous quarter (Q4FY24) and a 65.2 per cent Y-o-Y rise in Q1FY24.
Reliance Jio, India's biggest telecom operator, is planning to launch an initial public offering (IPO) and listing on bourses in the first half of 2026, billionaire Mukesh Ambani said on Friday. Jio is currently a unit of Reliance Industries Ltd, India's most valuable company.
Foreign direct investment in India jumped 47.8 per cent to $16.17 billion in April-June this fiscal on healthy inflows in services, computer, telecom and pharma sectors, according to government data. FDI inflows were at $10.94 billion in April-June 2023-24. The data showed that overseas inflows in May rose to $5.85 billion and in June to $5.41 billion from $2.67 billion and $3.16 billion, respectively, in the year-ago period.
Trends in the global energy markets are crucial if India's growth outlook is to remain healthy. Prices for the Indian crude basket were averaging around $86.2 per barrel through Q1FY25 and then moderated to $84 in July and to $78-79 in August (so far). But global crude supply may outpace weak global demand in the short term.
India is likely to grow by 7.5 per cent in the first quarter of the current financial year, driven by rising aggregate demand and non-food spending in the rural economy, according to an article in the RBI's May Bulletin released on Tuesday. The Indian economy has demonstrated marked resilience in the face of geopolitical headwinds impacting the supply chain, said an article on the state of the economy published in the May Bulletin.
Strong macroeconomic headwinds causing turbulence in the $245-billion Indian IT industry are yet to calm down. Top Indian IT services companies are likely to post a decline or just marginal growth in sequential revenue in Q1FY24 because of a soft discretionary spending environment. Though the first quarter is seasonally strong for IT firms, "June 2023 will be an exception", according to analysts at Kotak Institutional Equities.
Movement in the equity market this week will be guided by a host of macroeconomic data announcements, global trends and trading activity of foreign investors, analysts said. Stocks markets concluded the last week on a subdued note, as investors grappled with global uncertainties.
Asset Management Companies (AMCs) demonstrated improved business metrics in the first quarter ended June 2023 (Q1FY24), but a sharp run-up in stocks leaves little room for further upside in the immediate term, say analysts. During this quarter, HDFC AMC reported a 10 per cent year-on-year (YoY) rise in revenue from operations at Rs 575 crore. Nippon India's revenue from operations went up 12 per cent to Rs 354 crore.
The early-bird results for the April-June quarter of 2024 (Q1FY25) hint at a slowdown in corporate revenues and profits in FY25. Corporate profits might face headwinds from a continued revenue growth slowdown and a reversal in margin gains from lower commodity and energy prices in FY24. The combined net profit (adjusted for exceptional gains and losses) of the 210 companies that have declared their Q1FY25 results so far is down 4.2 per cent from the year-ago period - their worst showing in seven quarters.
Private sector banks that announced their earnings for the October-December quarter (Q3) of 2024-25 (FY25) reported a rise in credit costs due to higher provisions, mainly for unsecured retail loans.
Corporate earnings got a big boost from the fall in commodity and energy prices in July-September 2023 (Q2FY24) despite a slowdown in revenue growth during the quarter. The combined net profits of 3,123 firms that have declared their results so far were up 38 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y) to Rs 3.07 trillion in Q2FY24, up from Rs 2.24 trillion a year ago. Earnings were, however, down 3.5 per cent on a sequential basis from Rs 3.18 trillion in April-June (Q1) FY24.
Even as the slowdown in the information technology (IT) services sector deepens, banking, financial services and insurance (BFSI), as well as oil and gas companies, emerge as the primary drivers of corporate earnings in the country. The IT services sector's share in corporate earnings declined to a five-year low of 17.4 per cent in the second quarter (Q2) of 2023-24 (FY24), whereas banks and finance companies accounted for 46.5 per cent, and oil and gas firms contributed 16.8 per cent. At their peak, IT services firms like Tata Consultancy Services (TCS), Infosys, HCLTech, and Wipro represented just over a third of the combined net profit of all listed companies in the Business Standard sample.
Escalation of the conflict in West Asia between Israel and Iran has had a direct impact on the energy markets, and more broadly on the financial markets as well as the global economy.
State Bank of India (SBI) on Saturday reported an almost flat standalone net profit at Rs 17,035 crore for the first quarter of the current financial year. The country's biggest lender had posted a net profit of Rs 16,884 crore in the April-June quarter of 2023-24. The bank's total income increased to Rs 122,688 crore in the first quarter against Rs 108,039 crore a year ago, SBI said in a regulatory filing.
The country's gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to grow at around 18.5 per cent with an upward bias in the first quarter of the current financial year, according to SBI research report Ecowrap. This estimate is lower than the Reserve Bank of India's GDP growth projection of 21.4 per cent for the April-June quarter. "Based on our 'Nowcasting' model, the forecasted GDP growth for Q1 FY22 would be around 18.5 per cent (with upward bias)," the report said. Higher growth in Q1 FY22 is mainly on account of a low base.
Hindalco's India business, including Utkal Alumina, reported good results for the January-March quarter of the financial year 2024-25 (FY25) and consolidated earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortisation (Ebitda) also rose. Earnings growth was driven by favourable pricing, lower input costs and lower tax outgo for Novelis.
Concerns have been raised over Marico's exposure to Bangladesh in the wake of turmoil in that country. However, the management reiterated expectations of growing domestic business at double digits and maintaining international growth. Marico scaled up its food business by 4 times between FY20-24 and aims to double it again in the next three financial years.
Reliance Industries may report a muted performance for the April-June quarter of FY24, with most brokerages expecting it to have witnessed a year-on-year (YoY) and quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) contraction in revenue and net profit during the period because of a poor showing by its oil-to-chemicals (O2C) division. The O2C division, which includes refining and petrochemical businesses, accounts for a little over half of RIL's revenue and profit. A muted showing by RIL in the first quarter of 2023-24 may weigh on the overall corporate earnings, as well as the equity markets.
The US Fed interest rate decision, trading activity of foreign investors and quarterly earnings from corporates would largely drive the momentum in the equity market this week, analysts said. Escalating tensions between India and Pakistan over the Pahalgam terror attack will also remain on investors' radar, they added.
The GDP growth is estimated to come at the "deceptively high" level of 20 per cent for the April-June 2021 quarter but is far below the same in the pre-COVID times, rating agency Icra said on Wednesday. Icra said the low base of the last year, when the GDP had contracted by close to 24 per cent, "conceals" the impact of the second wave of COVID-19 infections. Economic activity is boosted by robust government capital expenditure, merchandise exports and demand from the farm sector, it said, estimating the GDP to grow by 20 per cent and the gross value added (GVA) will register a growth of 17 per cent for the June quarter.
Poor earnings show in the September quarter (Q2FY24), with hints of likely weakness in asset quality going ahead, forced analysts to cut earnings estimates of SBI Cards and Payment Services (SBI Card). On the bourses, shares of the State bank of India arm tumbled 7.4 per cent to Rs 732 apiece on the BSE in the intraday trade as investors factord in near-term concerns. Analysts at Motilal Oswal Financial Services, for instance, slashed SBI Card earnings by 8 per cent and 10 per cent for FY24 and FY25, respectively, as they expect the company to face pesistent magin pressure.
